Prison population and penal reform: working towards sustainability

What are the drivers of the prison population?

While there has been rapid growth in the prison population since 2023, the rise can be traced prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and it has been driven by multiple, complex long-term trends and changes.

One of the significant drivers is the growth in the number of long-term prisoners (LTPs) – those sentenced to four years or more in custody – who currently make up 36% of the prison population. This is alongside an increase in the average sentence length for LTPs, meaning people are in custody for longer. This growth is projected to continue over the next ten years.

The increase in the prison population should be considered in the broader context of a decrease in the overall volume of recorded crime, criminal proceedings, convictions and custodial sentences. There are substantially fewer individuals arriving at prison each year than in 2009-10. In addition, there has been a decrease in the number of convictions in court for less serious offences like crimes of dishonesty, which has led to a decrease in the number of custodial sentences for such offences. Alongside other changes (e.g. the presumption against short sentences), this shift has contributed to a reduction in the number of short sentences handed down by the courts although short sentences still constitute the majority of custodial sentences imposed each year.

The use of, and time spent on, remand (in custody awaiting trial or sentencing) are also important trends in the rising prison population. The remand population was increasing prior to 2020, a trend that was exacerbated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the number of individuals arriving to remand has fallen substantially since 2009-10, the time spent on remand has increased sharply. Although it has decreased following post-pandemic court recovery, it remains substantially longer than the pre-pandemic period.

International evidence indicates that Scotland’s prison population challenge is not unique, but it stands out in scale and intensity. Scotland has one of the highest incarceration rates in Western Europe (148 prisoners per 100,000 population), significantly above countries such as Norway (54), the Netherlands (55), Finland (58) and Germany (69).

While caution should be exercised when drawing on specific policies and interventions across different jurisdictions—given variations in legal systems, justice frameworks, and wider social contexts—the main consistent lesson is that long-term population pressures are most effectively addressed through planned, well-designed, and coordinated system-wide approaches.

What has already been done to address the rising prison population?

A range of actions have already been taken to mitigate the rising prison population, including operational estate management, emergency release processes and further changes to primary and secondary legislation. In particular, the following steps have been taken:

• Change in automatic early release point for most short-term prisoners to 30% of sentence served
• Emergency early release processes for certain short-term prisoners
• Expansion of home detention curfew (HDC)
• Increased investment in community justice
• Strengthening alternatives to remand
• Expanding electronic monitoring
• Optimising the prison estate (to ensure available space is used as effectively as possible)
• Prison building (primarily replacement of the existing estate to date)

While these actions have slowed the rate of population growth, they have been insufficient to overcome the underlying structural drivers to deliver a sustainable prison population. Without targeted action on the long-term prisoner cohort, alongside other measures being taken forward on short-term prisoners and plans to expand the prison estate, it is likely that the prison population will continue to rise, increasing the risk to the safe and effective management of prisons.

The report highlighted the evidence that short sentences are less effective than other community sentences at rehabilitating people who have offended. It highlighted the negative impact such sentences have on the factors that can help deter people from engaging in criminality, such as family relationships, positive peer associations, housing, employment and education. It noted that the prevalence of people serving short sentences within the prison estate makes it harder for SPS and partners to invest the time required for rehabilitation of people who have committed more serious offences serving longer sentences.

The Commission also set out recommendations to reduce the use of remand, highlighting concerns about the high remand population and the negative impacts on people who may not have been convicted of a crime and their families, as well as negative impacts on the prison population, which is already under great pressure.

The Commission was clear that more people should be dealt with in the community instead of serving short sentences or being remanded, and that people should spend more time supervised in the community at the end of their sentences, rather than in prison, to help them reintegrate. The Commission contended that this would be more effective at reducing reoffending, as well as assisting in helping Scotland to lower its prison population.

The Commission emphasised that action must be taken so that victims of crime can have assurances that they are safe, and appropriately informed and supported, throughout their involvement with the criminal justice system. Electronic monitoring was highlighted as playing an important role in preventing people who have offended from approaching victims or going to particular places.

The Commission noted that achieving a more sustainable prison population would require change at every stage of the system, and urged the Government to take a holistic approach, with key recommendations in areas including sentencing, community interventions, bail and remand, and release from custody. It emphasised that taking forward these recommendations would not just help with the important goal of reducing the prison population but is also “an invitation to choose a different path for Scotland – one that uses imprisonment more wisely; reduces reoffending and leads to fewer victims, strengthens community responses, and makes prevention a genuine driver of public service delivery.